Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Tropical Storm Nate

Well, 96L sure developed faster than I thought, as we now have Tropical Storm Nate in the Bay of Campeche. There is still a ton of dry to the N/NW, so you would think Nate is going to have a tough time developing into a hurricane. However, if you look at the satellite imagery, you see nice curved banding occurring, as it looks like Nate is going to deepen fairly quickly. Hmmm? If it can keep the dry air out of the core, then I think Nate will deepen. If the dry air is entrained, then Nate will struggle.

The track is tough as well. The NHC has Nate heading towards Northern Mexico (La Pesca) very slowly, pretty much taking 6 days to get onshore. Personally, I'm leaning with a more northward motion. Again, this is not an easy forecast (What is in the topics these days? lol)... The trough to the north/northeast makes me think more of a northerly motion, so I'm going with my gut/instincts here. I'll look at things in much more depth tonight, but I'm personally leaning with a more northerly track at this moment. In my opinion, anywhere from northern Mexico to the panhandle of Florida needs to watch TS Nate closely, as there is potential for a huge track error. In about 24 hours or so, we should have an answer whether the more northerly motion makes sense or not...

Quickly on Tropical Storm Maria, I really don't have much change to my original thoughts. I think it will take a track similar to Irene, but most likely a little more east. Especially when it gets off the coast of North Carolina, as I don't see a New England hit in Maria's future. Personally, it looks to me like it will be east enough to miss the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Again, still a tough forecast, as we have plenty of time to watch things...

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