Tonight I'm going to focus my attention on invest 92L... I still feel very confident Hurricane Igor is a "fish storm", even though I do see it becoming a monster hurricane eventually! The real threat right now as far as the US is concerned is invest 92L... I'll post some model guidance spreads below, but I going to keep this short and sweet... I do feel 92L is potentially a legitimate threat to Texas, especially southern Texas! Overall, I see 92L developing and becoming a hurricane before interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula... How much it interacts with the Yucatan Peninsula will greatly influence not only the strength, but also the track of 92L... The more it interacts with the Yucatan, the weaker the storm, and the further south it will track, not being a threat to the Texas coastline! If it can just "clip" the Yucatan, the stronger the storm, and the further north it will track, becoming a threat to the Texas coastline!
So which is it? Honestly, that's such a hard questions to answer right now! Until 92L develops a closed circulation and becomes a tropical depression, I'm basically still giving it my best guess! Where the center does form, and the initial motion/movement is HUGE in the end game for 92L! While it "should" take a fairly similar track to Alex, nothing is set in stone right now! Like Earl, 50-100 miles will make a big difference in the end! The bottom line is this, there is a threat for 92L to impact the US, with south Texas being the most likely target! Again, there is still a lot of "ifs" right now, but without a doubt 92L is something to watch very closely! I'll have a weathervein update with Devin on Monday!