This is what I posted on facebook today. I'm focusing on how fast 93L develops (9 out of 10 tropical cyclones that develop east of 35W longitude will recurve harmlessly out to sea) and how the trough ridge pattern will setup. Japan is a big key there. My gut/instincts says it will miss the trough, so you know what that means, west... I'll have a detailed update on Sunday!
"I will say looking at everything in depth, 93L is a legitimate threat. With that said, I'm still going to reserve judgement for a few days. Wouldn't be too smart to drop a 12 day track forecast right now. lol. I'm leaning towards it missing the trough, but I'll feel much better about it by this weekend. I don't care what the models say, I'm focusing on Japan and how fast it develops. Not seeing 92L though..."