Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Thoughts on Tropical Storm Emily's Track

I'm going to keep this as quick as possible. This is still not an easy forecast, as things can/do change, but I do feel much more confident about it tonight.

I expect Emily to hit Hispaniola weak enough (probably a solid-strong TS), without a well developed core, that it will be able to regain strength fairly quickly in the Bahamas. So with that in mind, I expect Emily to move across the central/eastern part of Hispaniola, and pop out as a weak TS (40mph) or maybe a tropical depression. From there I expect it to gain strength, eventually becoming a hurricane as it moves through the Bahamas. While I think Emily will be close enough to scare everyone, I don't expect it to make landfall. I'll say it stays about 100 miles (give or take 50 miles either way) offshore as it nears both Florida and the Carolinas. This is not to say you shouldn't let your guard down, but I do feel fairly confident with that forecast. Also, this doesn't mean areas along the coast won't see stormy weather. There will almost certainly be high surf and a solid threat for rip currents. While I hope no one is in the water, if you are ever caught in a rip current, swim parallel to the shore until you get out of it. If you swim into the current, you will eventually get exhausted and drown. Something to please keep in mind!

*NOTE: If I'm off by 100 miles, which is nothing in a 4-5 day forecast, that will make a big difference. While I feel fairly confident, I have been wrong many times before, and will be wrong many times in the future. It's forecasting, which is very difficult...

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