Wednesday, August 31, 2011

93L & Katia

We now have 93L entering the Gulf of Mexico. I really thought this was going to happen, and it looks like things are slowly coming together. Again, the pattern screamed for this. I fully expect 93L to become Lee, and I'm still sticking with a Texas landfall. However, that's a VERY tough forecast right now. I honestly don't care what the models are saying at this time, but I have to at least recognize that the spread is massive (South Texas to the Florida Panhandle). We will have a better idea by Thursday night/Friday morning, as this should meander around the Gulf for a few days. I'll be the first to say this is one tough forecast. But hey, that's the tropics for you, and I personally enjoy the challenge!

With Katia, I still think it is going to miss the US, but by a lot less than most think. I definitely have it well west of Bermuda, and this is a real threat to the Canadian Maritimes in my opinion. We'll see what happens, but I like a more west track than most. Many more updates to come on 93L & Katia. I'll try to put out a detailed post tomorrow night!

*Update 10 am* It is starting to look like 93L will just sit in the Northern Gulf and meander around for many days (Bad news for flooding rainfall!). I personally see it becoming a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane, but again, this is really tough! The track forecast is ridiculously tough still. While I'm sticking with a movement back SW towards Texas, it could easily go N/NE into LA, MS, AL, or the panhandle of Florida. It could also go into Louisiana and then pop back out into the Gulf and start heading towards Texas? Maybe by tomorrow morning I'll have a better handle on it. I know that's not what many want to hear, but it's just being honest. Very hard forecast!

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