Sunday, August 21, 2011

TS Irene

Ok, just when I thought South Florida looked like the spot, things have changed! I noted last night, there was a clear northerly shift with TS Irene. That continued through the night/day, and guidance has shifted east without a doubt. The problem is this, there is a fine line between Miami, FL and Charleston, SC. If you are off by 100 miles in the short term, it could lead to a HUGE error in the long term. It's about 600 miles by car from Miami, FL to Charleston, SC, so an error that large is very possible with the shape of Florida's/Georgia's coast. Due to the shape of Florida/Georgia, a 100 mile miss east of Miami, could lead to a 600 mile miss down the road. For this reason, I feel for the NHC. It's a forecasters/chasers nightmare!

I threw this out on facebook earlier, and I feel like it is something to at least consider. If we have a large/powerful hurricane rolling up the coast, that will release tons of latent heat in the atmosphere, which the models will have trouble seeing. This will pump the ridge some, but to what extent is hard to predict. This could be the deciding factor on where Irene will go in. Bottom line, it's one tough forecast to say the least!

My gut was around Miami since Friday, but it is hard to ignore the north shift. I think without a doubt if Irene misses, it will be to the east. And I have to say, my guy now says South Carolina. The scary thing with Irene is I think it will clip Puerto Rico and miss Hispaniola to the north. "If" that does happen, all I can say is LOOK OUT! This is going to be a major hurricane for someone along the east coast. If you live from the Florida Keys to the Outer Banks of North Carolina, watch this one closely. Even with the shape of the coast and how difficult this track forecast is, we'll know a lot more by Monday! Many more updates to come...

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