Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Just My Thoughts...

I posted on facebook today that the next 10 days should be interesting/challenging out in the tropics. I personally feel Lee will develop and go into the Gulf (Most likely Texas), and I also think Katia is at least a threat to the east coast (Most likely North Carolina). I'm not predicting any disaster or any specific details, just there is a legitimate threat, that's all. I refuse to base my forecast on 7-10 day model forecasts, as I'm all about pattern recognition. Live by the model, and die by the model! The pattern says that Lee may form in the Gulf later this week/weekend, and that Katia may be a scare for the east coast. Key word is may, as you should always follow the NHC for official forecasts. What may become Lee is more of a gut call, so we'll see there. The pattern screams for it though in my opinion. With Katia, I would typically say she is going out to sea (~ 9 out of 10 tropical cyclones that form east of 35W longitude recurse harmlessly out to sea). Even though that tropical tip only leaves around a 10% chance for a US landfall, the Asian trough/ridge teleconnection at least tells me there is a threat. Especially, with a typhoon amplifying everything. At this time I think Katia will barely miss, but that will give many along the east coast a scare. It's going be close!

Anyways, the bottom line is these are just my thoughts. I'm wrong all the time, and I never claim to be an expert (In my opinion, there is no such thing in weather forecasting). I was off on Irene's track, even though I did say Morehead City, NC almost 4-5 days out. However, overall I'm not happy with my Irene forecast, because I blew the intensity and originally had south Florida as my most likely landfall spot. One thing about me, I'm not scared to say what I think. If people disagree, that's 100% fine, but at least have the respect to tell me your thoughts first. What I don't like, is people that are quick to criticize, yet never have the guts to say what they think until after the event is over. Like I said, I'm wrong all the time, as the best forecasters may get 66.7% of their forecasts right. Of course those odds go down even more the further out in time you go. I understand and accept that I will be wrong many times, but I'm not scared to say what I think. Even in storm chasing, I have always lived by the moto, "You win some, and you lose most". That's just the nature of meteorology, forecasting, and storm chasing in general.

No comments:

Post a Comment