The Cone of Uncertainty!

Hurricane Earl is still a Category-4 with sustained winds of 135mph... If you look at water vapor imagery, there is a lot of dry air which I really think is starting to affect Earl... I agree with the NHC's intensity forecast, as I don't see Earl getting any stronger than it currently is! The track is still very tricky! A 100 miles will make the difference between hurricane force conditions or tropical storm force conditions in places like Cape Hatteras/Cape Cod... Typically, being off by 100 miles 3 days out is not bad, but in this case, it will make a big difference... I've been saying that Hurricane Earl will stay about 100-200 miles off the coast for a few days now! I still feel like that will be a good forecast, but again it's tough to say whether it will be closer to 100 miles or 200 miles... The latest model trends are a tad bit more east, but you still really can't take too much out of that!

This is not the direct strike many are hyping in my opinion, but this is not to say that you shouldn't take the cone of uncertainty seriously! I always say prepare for the worst, and hope for the best! At the same time, hype is NOT a good thing... All it does is lead to panic, which only makes the situation much worst! If you live inside the cone, make sure you have some preparations ready and consider your hurricane plan just in case! We should know A LOT more tomorrow, as again this is a tough forecast! I really do think 100-200 miles off the coast is going to work out well, but still if you are in the cone, don't wait until it is too late to prepare! More updates tomorrow as Devin and I will hopefully record another weathervein episode...

18z HWRF zoomed in! It's pretty obvious why 100 miles makes a big difference! You can find these images on Ryan Maue (FSU) weather page!

THE WEATHERVEIN - 10...

Here is episode - 10 of THE WEATHEVEIN... Enjoy!

THE WEATHERVEIN - 9... (Hurricane Katrina Edition)

Here is episode - 9 of THE WEATHERVEIN (Hurricane Katrina Edition)... Enjoy!

5 Years Ago Tonight!

5 Years ago tonight I was sitting in my hotel room in Gulfport, MS thinking to myself how bad Katrina was going to be... Honestly, it was one of the very few times chasing that I thought to myself, if we make a mistake tomorrow, we are dead! Now of course Katrina weakened before landfall (Interaction with land/some dry air/eyewall replacement), but at that time we (John Walker/Richie Hoseney/Bryce Bedford) were staring down the barrel of a Category-5 hurricane! I'll never forget Katrina for as long as I live! On the 29th I saw some of the most amazing things I have ever seen, and also by far some of the saddest things I have ever seen! It was an eye opening experience to say the least... I'll be talking about some of the stories from Katrina tomorrow during our WEATHERVEIN update... I figured talking about these stories would give them a lot more justice than me just writing about them! I'll leave you tonight with this thought below:

5 years ago today I read the scariest thing in my entire life!!! I'll never forget driving around Gulfport, MS trying to find a shelter when John Walker told me to read something... It was a urgent weather message out of New Orleans, LA written by a man named Robert Ricks... I would love to shake this mans hand one day! I give him all the props in the world to have the guts to issue this statement!!!

000
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...

.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETEBLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATEADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERINGINCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BEKILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!

Hurricane Katrina/Tropics...

It's hard to believe that the 5 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina is Sunday! Below is two links to some video I shot in Gulfport, MS... In the tropics, things are very active! Danielle is heading out to sea! Earl will be close enough to give the US (North Carolina) a little scare, but I still feel confident it will head out to sea! Fiona is a different story though! The slower Fiona develops, the further west it will track! Fiona "should" track west of Earl, which "could" be problems for the east coast! It's going to be close, and we'll have another weathervein update on Sunday! By then, I'll know a lot more! That 35 W longitude marker is statistically very important!



Hurricane Katrina Video - 1

Hurricane Katrina Video - 2

THE WEATHERVEIN - 8...

Here is episode - 8 of the WEATHERVEIN... Enjoy!

Hurricane Andrew, 16 years later! (Blog Post I wrote 2 years ago)

Early this morning was the 16 year anniversary of Hurricane Andrew... Officially, the 3rd and last Category 5 to hit the US... Considering the fact my parents live in Coral Gables, I have heard many stories about this killer storm... One of the more amazing stories I heard was from a Cuban gentlemen who was living in Homestead at the time... He described what he called a breach in his home which led to catastrophic failure... He told me the laundry room breached, so he quickly got his wife and two kids and rushed them into an interior bathroom... He held onto the door for dear life and even told me a couple of times he thought he wasn't going to be able to hold the door shut any longer, as his entire house was being destroyed by Andrew... By the grace of God he was able to keep that door shut and when it was all over, he walked out with his family to absolutely nothing! The bathroom his family rode out the storm in was the only room left, as the rest of his house was scattered down the block... Plus, keep in mind that this gentlemen is one of the better home builders in South Florida, so his home was up to standards.... He just took the absolute worst Andrew had to offer!



Hurricane Andrew made landfall just south of Miami, near Homestead, Fl at around 5am on August 24th 1992... At the time Andrew was thought to be a strong Category-4 at 145mph... 12 years later a reanalysis project by the HRD concluded that Andrew was a Category-5 at 165mph... Personally, I agree with the reanalysis 100%... To this date Andrew made landfall as the 4th strongest hurricane by pressure in US history (recorded)... A pressure of 922mb (27.23") at landfall is 4th to Katrina at 920mb, Camille at 909mb, and The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 at 892mb... The radar image above is the last image Miami received before the radar was damaged/failed... Officially, the highest recorded surface wind gust was observed at 177mph about one mile from the shore in Perrine, FL... Also, officially the highest recorded storm surge was observed at 16.9 feet on SW 184th street, which was the former location of Burger King's world corporate headquarters... Needless to say the damage was incredible!!!



Hurricane Andrew at the time was the costliest US hurricane in history... Today it ranks second to Hurricane Katrina... When you convert to 2005 dollar amounts Andrew had 55.8 billion dollars in damage where Katrina had 81.2 billion dollars in damage... As bad as Andrew was, it actually could have been a lot worse... If Andrew would have made landfall about 30 miles north, then Miami, Miami beach, and South Beach would have been completely annihilated... It would have been especially worse today, as Miami and South Florida in general has doubled in size since 1992... Even today when I go to visit my parents you can see huge skyscrapers being built right on/near the beach! It really is mind boggling to me, and unfortunately it's a disaster in the making...



The proof of this is what has already happened in the past... In 1926, Miami took a direct hit from a strong Category 4 hurricane (935mb) at 150mph (estimated)... The city was completely destroyed... When converting to 2005 dollar amounts the 1926 Miami hurricane had 157 billion dollars in damage... This would rank it number 1 ahead of Katrina... Actually in 2005 dollars, Katrina would be ranked third behind the Galveston 1900 hurricane, which had 99.4 billion dollars in damage... That's just scary in my opinion! My parents next door neighbor who is in his 90's, has been living in South Florida all his life... He has talked to me a few times about the 1926 hurricane and told me that even where my parents house is located in Coral Gables (~ 5 miles inland), it was under many feet of water during that hurricane... Can you even imagine today what Miami would look like if another 1926 hurricane came? I think damage would be well over 500 billion dollars and the loss of life would be much higher than Katrina (3,000+)...



On a side note, the University of Miami was named after this tragedy, hence the Miami Hurricanes!!! UM was founded in 1925 and opened its doors just days after the hurricane passed... The campus was basically destroyed by the hurricane of 1926... Interestingly, the university survived by harvesting coral from the area to repair the school... Ironically, UM is located in Coral Gables, and it's really interesting to me how all the names line up with historical events! Pretty cool in my opinion...

THE WEATHERVEIN - 7... (Hurricane Andrew Edition)

Here is episode - 7 of THE WEATHERVEIN (Hurricane Andrew Edition)... Enjoy!

Hurricane Danielle!

Danielle will be upgraded to a hurricane shortly, as she is starting to look very nice! Beautiful in my eyes, even though I know many would disagree... The power of these storms just amaze me! Danielle is a "fish storm", which I have been talking about on my blog since last Thursday! I think it will get to a major hurricane, but again it's not a threat to the US! With Danielle developing quickly, it will make its turn right much quicker! You can already see that on satellite imagery... At this point it looks likely that Danielle will curve east of Bermuda! Bottom line, the tropical tip worked out very well... It doesn't work a 100% of the the time, but 90% is pretty darn good... Plus, other factors like the Japan trough/ridge teleconnection helped verify that last 10% in my eyes!

Right now my attention is on a second easterly wave (96L) coming off Africa, which will probably be deemed TD #7 soon enough! I thought this wave "may" have a shot at affecting the US, but it's looking more and more likely that it's a fish storm like Danielle... What will eventually be named Earl, is developing way too fast! This goes back to the tropical tip that worked well with Danielle, 9 out of 10 tropical cyclones that develop east of 35 W longitude re-curve harmlessly out to sea! Also, when I look at the Asian trough ridge pattern and the the weakness Danielle will create in the ridge, I'm pretty darn confident that what will be Earl is going to curve out to sea just like Danielle! Just look at the strong trough east of Japan if you have any doubts!




I will say, watch for some homegrown development over the next week to 10 days! The MJO pulse is finally/slowly starting to get into a semi favorable region, and height rises in the NE US over the next week or so says homegrown development is possible! Specifically, watch the Gulf and SE US coast for development! It's something to watch at least!

THE WEATHERVEIN - 6...

The 6th episode of THE WEATHERVEIN... Enjoy!

9 out of 10...

This is a tropical tip that works very well... However, in fairness, I was wrong to say I'm 99.99% sure TD #6 is turing out to sea, when in reality it's a 90% chance... That 9.99% does make a difference, so I thought I would at least be fair and point that out! The ONLY way I see Danielle hitting the US, is for it to make its turn out to sea and then to have the ridge build in strong enough over the top for it to move back west... This would be similar to the 1933 hurricane, which made landfall just south of Virginia Beach, VA... I personally don't see this happening, but it is possible (10% chance)! I'm sticking with a turn out to sea, and with statistics saying there is a 90% chance of that occurring, I feel very confident in that forecast! ZERO changes here!

"9 out of 10 tropical cyclones that develop east of 35 W longitude re-curve harmlessly out to sea!"

TD #6...

TD #6 has formed! My thinking has not changed since my blog post Thursday night! I think TD #6 will develop into Danielle and eventually head out to sea! I wouldn't be surprised at all if Danielle becomes a major hurricane at some point, but the faster it develops, the more right it will turn! That exact turn right is still up for debate, but I'm 99.99% sure TD #6 is heading out to sea!

If you have time, quickly take a look at the next easterly wave coming off Africa! It's VERY EARLY to say a whole lot, but I think this wave has a decent shot at becoming a long track hurricane "capable" of affecting the US... Key word is capable, as it's WAY TOO FAR OUT to say much! I will say I did look at the western Pacific, and there is a strong trough to the east of Japan! This would say the second wave is a "fish storm" as well, "if" this teleconnection works out perfectly... In my opinion the slower this wave develops, the better shot it has at affecting the US, as it will give more time for the ridge to build back in! So basically it's a race, but you would think at the very least this second wave will move more west than TD #6? I'm going to give it a day or two before I realistically think about a long range track forecast for this second wave!

Oil Well Capped...

Quick post tonight, as I wanted to share 42 pictures compliments of The Big Picture blog! I've said this many times before, but it's an AMAZING picture blog! These 42 pictures are titled, "Now that the oil well is capped..."

The Big Picture: "Now that the oil well is capped..."

Nice wave coming off Africa!

There is a nice easterly wave coming off Africa, as the NHC has already given it a low chance (20%) for development! Let's break down some of the model guidance, and come up with a best guess forecast at this point in time! I'll go ahead and say this right now, I think this system is eventually going to develop (Likely a hurricane, possibly strong) and head out to sea!

12z Canadian: Shows a very interesting solution! You originally see a trough split, which eventually develops into most likely a tropical cyclone (Could be extratropical)! This cuts a weakness in the ridge, as you see a solid hurricane about to start its turn north at 144 hours! Pretty crazy stuff there!

12z ECMWF: Blows this system up into a strong hurricane, but heads out to sea! It hints at this very same trough split development as well!

0z GFS: Like the ECMWF, blows this system up into a strong hurricane, but once again, the track is out to sea! It also hints at the same type of trough split development as the ECMWF & the CMC (strongest with the trough split development)...

Asian Trough/Ridge Teleconnection: One BIG mistake I made with Colin, is I didn't look far enough east from Japan out in the western Pacific! I promise I won't make that mistake twice! As you can see, there is a strong trough well east of Japan (Remember: Tokyo, Japan correlates to Cape Hatteras, NC), which just helps verify why I see this system heading out to sea! The correlation should still be near 7 days, so again this makes a lot of sense! I know were way out in the long range, but I feel like a northward turn out to sea is likely! Exactly when that northward turn occurs is still up for debate, but I really don't think this system is a threat to the US at this point in time! Things can and do change quickly though, as this is the long range!

Last year's Hurricane Camille 40th anniversary blog post!

Tonight is the 40th anniversary of one the most destructive hurricanes in US history... Known as Camille, this monster made landfall in Bay St. Louis, MS around 11pm on August 17th 1969. The winds were sustained around 190mph with gusts over 200mph. Pure horror! Until Katrina, it held the largest storm surge record in US history of near 25 feet in Pass Christian, MS. The entire Mississippi coast was demolished! Some of the stories from that night are heart breaking and honestly I wouldn't do it justice talking about it. Below I'll leave links on the 40th anniversary and stories from survivors I could never do justice! Also, please keep in mind that more people died in Virginia due to flash flooding than along the Mississippi coast due to Camille's wind and surge. Just something to consider...

If you love historical weather, I highly recommend reading the stories below... You will learn the TRUTH about Camille and also about tragic side stories like the Richelieu Apartments! If you have the time to read all of them, I promise you will learn a lot not only about that tragic night in Mississippi, but also about the events that followed in Virginia. If you don't have the time, I would read 40th Anniversary #4 which was written today by TWC's Stu Ostro! It's EXTREMELY detailed and also very well written with lots of great links and comments...

40th Anniversary 1

40th Anniversary 2

40th Anniversary 3

40th Anniversary 4

Survivor Story 1

Survivor Story 2

Survivor Story 3

Survivor Story 4

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog

Hurricane Camille 41 Years Later!

Today is the 41st anniversary of the landfall of Hurricane Camille near Bay St. Louis, MS (Around 11pm). One of three Category - 5 hurricanes (recorded) to strike the US coastline! Or was it? According to the HRD re-analysis of Hurricane Camille's wind field at landfall, it may have actually been a strong Category-4... I'll post images below, but again according to HRD re-analysis of Camille, they have max surface winds of 129 knots, or 148mph. That's 8mph short of the 156mph needed to obtain Category-5 strength. Remember, hurricanes are ranked off surface wind speeds, not storm surge or overall impact/destruction! If there is any doubt about that, see the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale for reference, which was changed this year for that very reason. Trust me, this is very hard for me to comprehend! As someone that has lived in Mississippi for over 10 years now, and has always considered Hurricane Camille a benchmark hurricane, it's really hard to imagine that Hurricane Charley "may" have been as strong as Hurricane Camille... We'll see if the HRD ever officially reclassifies Camille as a Cat-4, but it's starting to look that way. A 909mb Category-4? WOW!

Thanks to Michael Laca from bringing my attention to this & posting these images on his facebook page!

Remnants of TD#5...

I originally thought nothing would form out of the remnants of TD#5 (Friday night), but by Saturday night I did think the remnants would get back to a tropical depression, and likely a weak tropical storm! The more south it moved over the Gulf of Mexico, the stronger it would become in the long range! That made sense, because it would have move time over the extremely warm waters of the GOM... Plus, the overall conditions looked pretty decent for development... It didn't take that more south route, so it wasn't expected to strengthen a whole lot today! However, I didn't think the remnants of TD#5 would do nothing! It looks absolutely pathetic tonight, and I don't even think it will make it back to a tropical depression at this point! I think the close proximity to land, and more northeasterly shear than I originally thought has prevented development! The threat with this "storm" has always been rainfall, and that still looks to be a problem across southern Louisiana!

THE WEATHERVEIN - 5...

Here is episode - 5 of THE WEATHERVEIN... Enjoy!

Quick look at the models!

The models are starting to hint at tropical development in the Atlantic basin later next week! Let's take a brief look at the models...

12z Canadian: Shows what's left of TD#5 trying to make a quick comeback (possibly a TS) before moving into eastern Louisiana Tuesday... At 144 hours it shows a tropical cyclone in the eastern Atlantic, as the African wave train starts to get going again! Just quickly looked at the 0z Canadian, as it is more aggressive with the redevelopment of TD#5!

12z ECMWF: Shows a tropical cyclone going out to sea at 240 hours... TUTT wins in this scenario!

0z GFS: First, it develops the remnants of TD#5 into most likely a tropical storm, as it moves into SE Louisiana Tuesday! At 192 hours the GFS shows a hurricane moving out to sea... Behind this tropical cyclone it continues to show a lot of development, while the African wave train intensifies!

0z NAM: Shows the remnants of TD#5 developing as well into most likely a tropical storm, while it tracks slightly more south/west into central Louisiana late Tuesday/early Wednesday!

Bottom line...

In the short term, the redevelopment of TD#5 is starting to become a real threat according to the models... In my opinion, it really just depends on how far south the remnants move out into the Gulf of Mexico... The further south it moves, the more likely it is to develop into a tropical cyclone! If it can somehow move south of Louisiana and head towards Texas, then I really think a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane is very possible! However, if it just barely gets back over the Gulf and moves into eastern Louisiana, then I don't see it getting much past a tropical depression/weak tropical storm tops! It is something I'll be watching very closely though! Many more updates to come!

In the long term, take all this model guidance (specific details) with a grain of salt! It's really just showing that tropical activity should start to increase later next week... It makes sense to me, as this activity should coincide with the MJO pulse finally moving into octants 1/2... However, in fairness, the movement of the MJO pulse HAS NOT been working out the way I thought it would (Stuck in no man's land/neutral circle), so we'll see what happens? Even without following the MJO pulse, positive rises in height anomalies towards the NE US in about a week or so, and climatology in general, says the tropics should increase soon! I'll be watching it closely, as only time will tell...

THE WEATHERVEIN - 4... (Hurricane Charley Edition)

Here is episode - 4 of THE WEATHERVEIN! This episode hits on the 6 year anniversary of Hurricane Charley! A day I'll never forget for as long as I live!

More Incredible Photos from Pakistan!

Here are 36 more incredible photos from the continuing Pakistani floods! Pictures courtesy of The Big Picture... Tomorrow is the 6 year anniversary of Hurricane Charley, so I'll have a detailed recount of that amazing event! I really can't believe it has been 6 years already!

The Big Picture (Continuing Pakistani floods)

TD#5 cont...

TD#5 is looking pretty pathetic at this hour! The upper level low has interacted much more with TD#5 than most thought! It's not like a hurricane was expected on this path towards SE Louisiana, but I thought a tropical storm was likely! I still think you will see TD#5 improve/tighten up slighty before landfall tomorrow morning... A weak TS is pretty much the very best we can expect as this point! The more east motion combined with the faster motion, lead to more interaction with the upper level low... Obviously, this has lead to the horrible satellite presentations were are currently seeing! More updates to come if warranted!

Update (4pm): TD#5 is dead! The upper low wins again!

TD#5...

It's looking more and more likely that TD#5 will make landfall as a tropical storm near southeast Louisiana Thursday... This is still somewhat of a tough forecast, because a couple things can still happen... At this point, how slow TD#5 moves will dictate how strong it gets! The upper low continues to be a little bit of a wild card on exactly how it influences TD#5 as well... You would think TD#5 would be a no-brainer at this point, but there are still a couple unanswered questions in my eyes! Bottom line though, it's becoming increasingly more likely that a TS will be striking SE Louisiana on Thursday! I'll have a much detailed update tomorrow afternoon!

No Changes...

My thoughts on 94L are pretty much the same tonight... 94L has continued to back SW, but it is interacting with an upper level low... As long as this continues, don't expect much intensification, even though the upper level low looks to be weakening some while moving NW! 94L is starting to look a lot better this evening, and I do think 94L will eventually at least become a tropical storm before landfall! You can see a nice broad circulation off the Key West radar!

The models are starting to become more uniform and aggressive with developing 94L... Another thing the models are starting to become more uniform on is a more eastern track... SE Louisiana looks like the spot as of now according to the models, but things can change quickly! Plus, until 94L does develop, I don't really have much faith in the details right now! It just depends on how strong the ridge holds on! Anywhere from about Galveston, TX to Pensacola, FL needs to watch 94L closely! In my personal opinion, I think the ridge is going to hold stronger than the models think, and I like a more westward track! The more west 94L moves, the stronger it will become! I think a hurricane is very possible if it moves more towards the northern Texas coast!

94L...

This is going to be a quick post, but all eyes should be on 94L... It's currently a weak broad area of low pressure centered about 110 miles east of the central Florida coast... The models back 94L to the SW, and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico... From there some models are a lot more aggressive than others! The 18z GFDL goes crazy with 94L, eventually developing it into a weak category - 3 hurricane, just before striking the northern Texas coast Friday morning... The 18z HWRF doesn't back 94L as much SW as the GFDL, and never really develops it into much (30 knots) before striking central Louisiana Thursday early afternoon! This just shows why the models are basically worthless at this point!

The key to me is how far SW does 94L back? In my opinion, the more SW 94L backs, the more likely it is to become a stronger storm... Why? Because it would have more open deep warm water to work with across the Gulf of Mexico! Right now it's tough! It's so darn early to really say much, but I do think the more SW 94L backs into the Gulf, the stronger storm it will be in the long range... With a strong ridge in place across the south, I think a more western path is likely! Let's see first how 94L develops before we start talking about the track and intensity! Many more updates to come!

MSU BMP Workshop Schedule...

21st Annual MSU BMP Workshop 2010

Tentative Schedule

Monday, August 9

8:00 - 9:00 am – Workshop registration in Crosky Auditorium

9:00 – 9:45 am – Dr. Mark Binkley, Director of Academic Outreach and Continuing Education, MSU. “Opening Comments, Faculty and Staff Introductions, Student Introductions”

9:45 – 10:00 am – Doug Gillham and Mary Dean, Academic Coordinator: “Information and Requirements about Upgrading from the BMP Certificate Program to the BS Degree in Geosciences”

10:00 – 10:15 am – Certificate Exam and Graduate program opportunities, Doug Gillham

10:15 - 10:30 am – Break

10:30 – 11:45 pm – Session 1: Review Session #1 (Synoptic Meteorology), Dr. Grady Dixon

11:45 – 12:15 – Session 2: Raw vs. MOS guidance, Doug Gillham,

12:15 – 1:00 pm – LUNCH provided in Crosky Auditorium – Bulldog Deli

1:00 – 2:15 pm – Session 3: Review Session #2 (Satellite and Radar), Michael Carter and David Keeney

2:15 - 3:30 pm – Session 4: “Winter Weather Forecasting Part I – Forecast Soundings to Predict Precipitation Type” Doug Gillham

3:30 – 3:45 pm – Break: Snacks

3:45 – 4:30 – Session 5: Severe Weather Case Study, Renny Vandewege

4:30 – 5:15 – Session 6: “Broadcasting issues, Seals of Approval”, Renny Vandewege,

5:15 – 7:00 – Optional Tape Swap Session (or dinner on your own)

7:00 pm – Dinner on your own

Tuesday, August 10

Breakfast at the hotel, coffee and pastries will be provided at the meeting room

8:30 – 9:30 am – Session 7: “Tropical Weather Forecasting Tips”, Greg Nordstrom

9:30 - 10:30 am – Session 8: Winter Weather Forecasting, Part II – Snow to Liquid Ratios, & other Winter Weather Challenges, Doug Gillham

10:30 – 10:45 – Break

10:45 – 12:00 – Session 9: “Climate Change”, Dr. Charles Wax, State Climatologist

12:00 - 12:45 pm – Lunch in Crosky from Little Dooey’s

12:45 - 1:45 pm – Session 10: Review Session #3 (Thermodynamic Meteorology), Tim Wallace

1:45 – 2:45 pm – Session 11: Case Study, Michael Carter

2:45 – 3:00 pm – Break: Snacks

3:00 – 4:00 pm – Session 12: Review Session #4 (Severe Weather), Greg Nordstrom

4:00 – 5:15 – Session 13 Part a: “Teleconnections”, Part b: Raw model guidance through Bufkit

5:15 pm – Optional Tape Swap or on your own for evening

Wednesday, August 11

8:30 – 9:45 – Session 14: “Numerical Weather Prediction”, Dr. Jamie Dyer

9:45 - 10:00 am – Break

10:00 - 11:00 am – Session 15: "Aggressive Severe Weather Coverage Across All Platforms", James Spann, Meteorologist ABC 33/40, Birmingham, AL.

11:00 - 12:15 pm – Session 16: "Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting & Case Study”, Dr. Jamie Dyer

12:15 – 1:00 pm – Lunch in Crosky

1:00 - 1:15 am – Academic Excellence Awards: All “A” Grades in BMP; also take care of any last minute items before the workshop concludes

1:15 am – 1:30 pm – Workshop Evaluation and Pictures

1:30 – 2:00 pm – Tour of Hilbun Hall, MSU Climate Lab and Broadcast Studio (optional)

End of Workshop – Have a safe trip!!

Amazing Flooding Photos from Pakistan!

Here are 41 amazing flooding photos from Pakistan! They were posted by The Big Picture blog, which is an incredible picture blog I always love to visit! I've linked The Big Picture blog a few times before, but I once again highly recommend everyone checking it out!

The Big Picture: Severe flooding in Pakistan

2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Updates...

I figured I would leave links to the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season updates from CSU and NOAA.... CSU kept everything the same, sticking with 18 named storms and an ACE index of 185%... NOAA went down on their numbers some, going 14-20 named storms... This is down from their initial forecast of 14-23 named storm on May 27th 2010...


CSU Updated 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

NOAA Updated 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

THE WEATHERVEIN - 3...

Here is the 3rd episode of THE WEATHERVEIN... Enjoy!

Tropical Storm Colin Grade!

Normally I would title this, Tropical Storm Colin GRADES... However, there is only one grade necessary for my forecast... F!!! I'll spare you the details on why my forecast was horrible, but I will say this happens more than you think in the tropics, and forecasting in general... The key is to learn from it! I just think it's funny how all that talk on the long range track forecast never even mattered! Kind of ironic if you think about, as TS Colin is DEAD!

THE WEATHERVEIN - 2....

Here is the second episode of THE WEATHERVIEN... Enjoy!

THE WEATHERVEIN...

Here is the first WEATHERVIEN show/weather discussion... Hope you enjoy!