Saturday, October 9, 2010


The NHC now has the area of interest in the Caribbean at a high risk for development (60%)... I personally expect this area to eventually become Paula, and it "may" eventually make it to a weak hurricane! Currently, the likely track takes Paula across Cuba/Bahamas and out to sea... Of course it needs to be watched closely if you live in South Florida, but at this time it does look to miss to the south & east... Keep in mind that this is a very tough forecast! The 18z GFDL has invest 98L becoming a hurricane, crossing western Cuba, and being a very close call for the Florida Keys/South Florida... The 18z HRWF has invest 98L sitting off the Central American coast, not doing much at all... This type of model differences is not surprising at all! Until 98L at least becomes a depression (closed circulation), then the models will struggle to get a strong handle on 98L's future... If you live in South Florida, all eyes should be what may become Paula next week!

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