Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Something Important to Consider with Tropical Depression #19...

Right now I really don't have much to say about tropical depression #19... This is a tricky forecast, and I would like to give it a day or two to develop before I say much... Just look at the model spread right now! Even though it is starting to cluster more over the Yucatan/Belize... There is no doubt that what should become Richard is a legitimate threat to eventually get into the Gulf of Mexico... Let's say that TD #19 does go into the Yucatan, the key is going to be the strength at landfall... If Richard becomes a decent/strong hurricane (well defined inner core), then it will be torn to pieces as it crosses into the Gulf... This will not allow "Richard" to regain its original intensity! However, if Richard stays at a strong TS/weak hurricane tops (not a defined inner core), then it is MUCH MORE likely to intensify once it gets into the Gulf! This is HUGE in my eyes!

Tropical Tip: Strong/Major hurricanes (well defined inner core) that moves across land often do not regain their intensity once back over water while weaker storms may intensify rapidly once back over water... The land disrupts the inner core of the hurricane causing it to weaken, while outer bands over water continue to have healthy convection, which will prevent inflow from getting to the surface of the storm (inner core) once back over water!

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