Thursday, October 14, 2010

Peace Out Paula!

Tropical Storm Paula is dying quickly! Interaction with Cuba and strong wind shear is ripping her apart... The NHC has Paula saying goodbye Saturday night! With continued land interaction over Cuba/wind shear, I agree 100% with the NHC's forecast! Peace Out Paula! Elsewhere in the tropics, the NHC has outline a low risk (10%) area for development in the SW Caribbean... Of course it's something to watch closely, as the Caribbean is the last region in the Atlantic basin where I expect a few more storms to develop this season... I guess it's still possible to reach 20 named storms, especially when you look at the MJO pulse movement over the next two weeks... A lot of upward motion is forecasted to be in the Caribbean in the next 15 days... Add in the fact that we are in a strong La Nina season, and I expect the hurricane season to last well into early November... Whether any storm that forms can directly affect the US coast is up for debate, but again, I expect at least 2/3 more developments in the Caribbean before the season ends! We'll see what happens?

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