This is going to be a quick post, but here are 4 areas you should watch in the tropics over the next week or so:
1) 95L, which should move into Louisiana over the next 36-48 hours... Don't see any big problems with this! Too much shear, and not enough time for development...
2) A tropical wave (96L) in the Caribbean that the NHC has put a 10% chance of development on... This is the "possible" threat to the SW Gulf of Mexico I was talking about last night! It should take a similar path to Alex, depending on exactly where it develops... Looking at it right now, I would say this tropical wave should take a path slightly more south than Alex.... The European was a lot more aggressive with development yesterday, even though it still shows the threat (Northern Mexico) on today's 12z run... It will be interesting to watch!
3) An area of disturbance off the Florida coast... This "could" pose a threat to the Carolinas mid-week... You have a stalled front of the coast of Florida with a developing low... This can lead to tropical development, especially when you have very warm ocean waters like we have right now! I personally don't see this being much of a threat at this time... It's gong to have to work hard just to get from sub-tropical to purely tropical first.... However, it's something to watch for sure!
4) Last but not least, I'm watching another tropical wave which should enter the Caribbean in the next few days... This is the threat that really sparks my interest right now! I'm not that worried about it at this time, but I think of the 4 areas of concern, it poses the biggest potential threat to the US... Only time will tell, as it's way too early to say a whole lot! With the MJO pulse almost "stuck" in octave 2, that says to me there is a lot potential with enhanced upper motion in the Atlantic basin... I'll be watching it closely!