Tropics = TOUGH!

96L has completely split, as the low-level center heads toward central Texas, and the mid-level center heads toward northern Mexico! This is a prime example why forecasting the tropics is extremely difficult! My original instincts/forecast was for 96L to eventually form into Bonnie and head towards northern Mexico... I always felt from the beginning that the ridge would hold strong, which was touched on in several blog posts and explained with the Asian trough/ridge teleconnection... Yesterday, with 95L putting a weakness in the ridge and with 96L "redeveloping" north, I was starting to really believe the low-level and mid-level centers would hook up and head towards central Texas... I guess I got it half right with the low-level center heading that way, but the mid-level center is heading towards northern Mexico, and has already become the dominate center! Like I said last night, the models and forecasters alike were basically guessing until 96L's centers either hooked up or split apart like we see now...

The Upper Texas coast will see some stormy conditions associated with the low-level center... The mid-level center "could" spin up just before it strikes the northern Mexico coast... The problem is without the low-level center, upwelled waters from Alex, and dry air, it's going to make it tough for 96L to even get named... This was one complex situation, and makes forecasting such a challenge... I don't know about you, but I love forecasting challenges like this! I always learn from each and every forecast I make, and I try my best to file back as much information as possible, so I can hopefully not make the same mistake twice! This was just tough! The low-level center could have just as easily become the main circulation... Even with it not being the main circulation, you are starting to see a good bit of convection fire on the eastern side, and once again the Upper Texas coast is going to experience some stormy conditions tomorrow! The mid-level center will move onshore Thursday...