Saturday, July 24, 2010

Tropical Storm Bonnie Grades!

My dog Hurricane Camille... (AKA: Category-5)

Here is a quick overview of my Tropical Storm Bonnie grades:

Short Term Track: I said Homestead to Miami Beach 24 hours out, and it made landfall in Cutler Bay, which is basically in the middle... My track was north of the NHC's short term track, and it verified very well... 48 hours + out I said what was left of Bonnie would track towards Eastern Louisiana... That also verified well... Considering I was north of the NHC's short term track, I have to give myself an A+ on the short term track!

Short Term Intensity: I thought Bonnie "might" be able to reach 50 mph tops, as it would be a weak tropical storm at landfall in South Florida... I wasn't exactly perfect here, but it stayed at a weak tropical storm at landfall... I also thought after crossing Florida that Bonnie would never regain tropical storm strength! Considering the NHC had it regaining tropical storm strength, I would give myself an A overall on the short term intensity!

Long Term Track: This one is a little hard to grade since it formed fairly close to Florida... I put out two scenarios that I believed were very possible... While one of the my scenarios was spot on, my original instincts (2 days before Bonnie formed) thought Bonnie would shoot through the Florida Straits... This obviously didn't happen, so while one of my scenarios was perfect, my instincts (second scenario) was dead wrong! That upper low really messed with me on the long term track! The best I can give myself is a B/B- here!

Long Term Intensity: Like the long term track, one of my two scenarios was perfect! However, that upper level low did trick me in the long range, so a B/B- is the best I can give myself again!

Long Term Tropical Forecasting: This is what I'm BY FAR most proud of! On July 12th at 11:29pm CDT, I blogged that I expected tropical development in the Atlantic Basin (Especially warning about homegrown development) 7-10 days out... At 11am EDT July 22nd TD #3 formed, and by 6:15 pm EDT Tropical Storm Bonnie formed... I took at little grief from some people, doubting that my 7-10 day prediction was way off since there was so much SAL & shear across the Atlantic basin... Don't get me wrong, I'm all for criticism (As long as your man/women enough to say what your thinking), but it felt good to get this one right!

If you know what your doing, following the MJO pulse is almost money back! It just proves to me that long range forecasting is possible, no matter what anybody says... I have found over the years, that a lot of people are scared of what they don't know! I personally take a completely different approach to that... I actively seek knowledge that I don't know/understand, so I can learn and become the best forecaster/meteorologist possible! I still have a LONG WAY to go, as no one is ever truly an expert in weather! I sure love the challenge though, as I try to learn as much as possible about short/long range forecasting techniques every single day! No grade necessary with this!


  1. Nice forecast. Camille has gotten a lot bigger! Looks like she underwent an eye wall replacement cycle!!

  2. Thanks buddy! She went through a couple eye wall replacement cycles since you last saw her! She is a Buzzsaw in the Gulf of Mexico now!!! haha... ;-)

  3. Love the last pic Greg - cool looking dog, get her a male companion and name it Andrew.