Tomorrow, I'll have a much more detailed blog post on the tropics, but I wanted to at least touch briefly on the NHC's tropical weather outlook... The NHC has circled two low risk (10%) areas for development... Both need to be watched, but I'm going to focus mostly on area #1... It has made it through the SAL, but now it's contending with a lot of shear (30-40 knots)... The NHC was talking about some slight pressure falls with area #1, but until the shear gets out, don't expect much development! Once it passes the upper trough/low, there is some room for development as it approaches south Florida... I'm not overly excited right now, but both the Canadian/GFS show some weak development... The 12z Canadian shows some weak development as area #1 approaches south Florida, and the 18z GFS takes area #1 through the Florida Straits with some weak development in the central Gulf....
Area #2 looks to take a similar track Hurricane Alex took... The 12z Canadian tries to develop area#2 into a weak tropical cyclone before landfall in northern Mexico 138 hours out... Area #2 is in a good region for development (little to no dry air/shear), so it's something to watch without a doubt... Again, with the ridge holding strong, this looks to be a Northern Mexico/Southern Texas threat... I want to watch it develop first before I get excited... Remember, the MJO pulse is in octave 2, so the environment in the Western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico is statistically very favorable for development...
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