Monday, July 5, 2010


Ok, I'm going to focus my attention on 96L tonight... I'll go ahead and say that this is a TOUGH forecast right now! There are so many possible formulas to the equation, that it is hard to pick the correct one at this time... Honestly, until the low-level center and the mid-level center hook up, the models and forecasters alike (me included), are basically guessing! Also, 95L adds a wrinkle to the track forecast!

What I do know is this... There is a STRONG ridge in place across the south, even though it's displaced to the north and east... Obviously, the extreme heat has been big news in the Mid Atlantic/North East... I'm not surprised by the 100 + temperature readings when you have 594 dm heights (500mb) across the region! The Asian trough/ridge teleconnection tells me this ridge should expand and build more south and west... However, you do have 95L creating a small weakness in the ridge... Teleconnections can't see that!

So while I feel the ridge will hold strong, I wonder if enough of a weakness has been created to allow 96L a little more north? Plus, with it "redeveloping" today more north, I think that's enough northward movement to spare extreme southern Texas (Brownsville/South Padre Island)... My gut says central Texas (Corpus Christi to Galveston) is now the target area with 96L... I'm not thinking as far north and east as Louisiana, because the models right now can't get a handle on the true center! The models, especially the GFS, struggle with bundling heat/energy... It wants to hand off heat/energy to the north, which you can clearly see with the NAM/GFS right now! Plus again, the ridge will hold strong! I did originally think 96L would take an Alex like track, but things change quickly in the tropics... Plus again, until 96L forms a true stacked center of circulation, we really are guessing... How that exactly happens is HUGE in figuring out the track!

With strength, I think 96L is going to run out of water before it can really ramp up... Of course there is always the potential that 96L could feedback like a great white on a seal, but I just don't see 96L centers hooking up with enough time to explode... Honestly, they may never hook up at all... Of course it needs to be watched, as intensity forecasting is incredibly difficult to forecast! Again, really want to see how fast 96L stacks before I really make a solid wind forecast... I do think regardless, Texas will experience tropical storm conditions on Thursday... What a challenging forecast, which I enjoy immensely! Everyone in Texas needs to watch 96L closely!

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