96L has now been upgraded to a tropical depression... Throughout the day 96L has looked better and better, as the mid-level center has tightened and a low-level center has now formed... Hence the newly formed tropical depression... Conditions are favorable for continued intensification until landfall tomorrow afternoon near Brownsville, TX... I will say that the convection has really died off over the last few hours... However, I do think it will get named Bonnie, even though I still don't see it getting much past a weak tropical storm tops... It will run out of warm water before it can really explode... The 18z GFDL has a 50 knot TS at landfall, while the 18z HWRF barely has a tropical storm at landfall... I think between 40 mph to 50 mph winds is a safe bet right now... Sorry for the quick post, but honestly there really isn't much more to add...
Thanks for letting me know not going to be a "biggie". Red Cross recruiting people to deploy to Texas, but I think that is for the flooding. I've been out of town & out of touch with weather. I've been telling everyone at the Red Cross Chapter they need to follow your blog for best forecasting. Also, see that you & Mark Sudduth are in communication. I told Jessie Bass, his sidekick, about your blog. Don't know if you already knew him or not.
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Both Mark and Jesse do a great job! I always enjoy following hurricanetrack.com! Thanks so much for the kind words and support! I hope you know that I really do appreciate it! What may become Bonnie won't be a big deal with wind/surge, but flooding is a big threat! There has already been so much rain with Hurricane Alex, that any more is bad news for northern Mexico/southern Texas!
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