While the tropics are about to start getting active, I still don't think the main show is coming until the MJO pulse gets deep into octants 1/2... By August 10th I think the Atlantic basin will start to explode... Think of what happens over the next week as the appetizer before the a huge steak dinner... This explosion of tropical activity I expect from Mid-August to Mid-October is not just climatology! While we may not hit the pre-season numbers many (including myself) predicted, I think an above average season is very probable... I would be shocked if we didn't end up with at least 13/14 named storms! Most importantly, I think the impact without a doubt will be above normal... We'll see what happens? I have put my ideas out, supported it with everything I know about the tropics, so if I'm wrong in the end, I'm wrong... One thing is for sure though, I'm not backing down from my thoughts/ideas until it's 100% over with!
*5 US landfalling hurricanes, with at least 2 of those major hurricanes (What's most important!)
* 17-20 named storms (Really don't like giving overall number forecasts too much!)