A Look Ahead...

"If" tropical development occurs out in the eastern Atlantic, I'm going to show you why I don't buy a right turn up the eastern seaboard in 7-10 days!

If you look at the ECMWF 500mb charts for Asia, I hope you notice a stout ridge extending from southern Japan through SE Asia... That says to me, about 7 days from now, you should expect a stout ridge from the Carolinas extended down into the Gulf of Mexico... Currently there is a short wave trough cutting into the ridge across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic US... Not in the Deep South though! It's brutal, as we are expecting 100 degree weather for at least the next week in Mississippi... There are no signs of a break either across the Deep South, as the ridge will continue to build in slowly, strengthening back towards the Mid-Atlantic US...

The stout ridge across SE Asia is forecasted to continue to remain strong for the next several days... So, that tells me that we'll have a similar setup across the SE US, as a "possible" tropical cyclone heads our way... The 0z GFS has come back left, but I still think it's too far right with its movement across Florida towards Apalachicola Bay! My instincts right now says a more southern track across southern Florida/Florida Straits/Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico... It's tough to get into specifics, but again the ridge should be strong, and I don't expect a right turn up the eastern seaboard at all right now! Things can change, as smaller subtle features can put a wrench in all this! However, the overall trend should be a strong ridge across the SE US, and movement more south and west... Only time will tell, but we first have to get tropical development before this means anything besides hot humid conditions across the South!