MJO Octants...

Here is a segment of what Joe Bastardi posted today on the MJO octants... I figured I would post this for some more guidance on the MJO pulse, as people ask me a lot about this... With the MJO pulse moving into octants 1 & 2 in the next 10 days, I expect the tropics to pick up big time after the first week or so of August... Also, with the models forecasting easterlies in the Caribbean to decrease significantly over the next 10 days as well, this only puts more confidence in the fact that the tropics should really pick by August 7th - 10th... It's hard to put an exact time frame on it, but I think it's fairly safe to say by August 10th (latest), the Atlantic basin should start to explode! Time will tell?

"Octants 8, 1 and 2 are the places where upward motion is strongest in the Atlantic Basin. The farther the MJO line is out away from the circle, the more development is likely. It is a product of the difference of land and water temps in the equatorial areas, and when the Atlantic is warm and the Pacific cool, it tends to focus on our area of the world. In the winter, the same type of situation is associated with troughs over the eastern and central U.S., and enhanced storminess.

The circular area and Octant 4 are neutral for tropical cyclones; the other octants are hostile for development."