97L...

Area #1, which is now 97L, is looking a little better tonight... I'm going to focus all my attention on 97L, since area #2 doesn't look so good right now... I wasn't expecting much out of area#2, but I thought conditions were favorable enough for some slow development... It still needs to be watched as it heads towards the Yucatan Peninsula, and eventually towards Southern Texas/Northern Mexico...

While 97L is looking better tonight, it still has a LONG way to go... It's contending with a lot of shear (30-40 knots) right now on the northern side of the tropical wave... The shear tendency is forecasted to lower (10-20 knots) over the southern side of the tropical wave, but still there is too much shear to the north for any serious development... I'm sure you will see 97L flare up and then flare down for the next 48 - 72 hours... However, people need to watch 97L in the long term! Once 97L passes the upper low/trough, it will start to move into a much better environment... Plus, once again, the MJO pulse is in octave 2 right now, which is statistically very favorable for development in the Western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico... By biggest fear with 97 L, is for it to move through the Florida Straits and explode once it gets into the Central Gulf of Mexico... Don't sleep on this!

One other problem with 97L IMO, it's two tropical waves fighting against each other... The energy needs to consolidate before you are really going to see it explode... "If" the energy can combine/consolidate, as it starts moving away from the upper low/trough, the shear will relax and conditions should start to become favorable for development! South Florida needs to watch 97L, but again my biggest fear is 97L moving through the Florida Straits and exploding in the Gulf of Mexico... It "could" strike southern Florida as a weak tropical cyclone, but I don't think it have enough time to really get its act toward before landfall... The worst case scenario is for 97L to take a path through the Florida Straits and out into the Gulf of Mexico... This is a very real threat that everyone needs to keep an eye on! Until it develops, I'm not very worried, but again don't sleep on this!

The 12z Canadian takes 97L into the Central Gulf of Mexico... It develops it into most likely a hurricane, and takes it towards the Mississippi Coast... In reality, it's hard to put a lot of stock in the Canadian... It has a problem with overdeveloping most systems in the tropics! Plus, as I stated last Wednesday, the ridge across the SE US will stay strong, so I'm NOT buying a northward turn at all... The 18z GFS takes 97L into the Central Gulf of Mexico, but never really develops it into much... The 12z ECMWF takes 97L into South Florida, and never develops it into much of anything in the Gulf of Mexico... The 6z GFDL doesn't do much with 97L, but the 6z HWRF develops 97L once it gets into the Central Gulf of Mexico... With some model support for a Gulf of Mexico threat, everyone should watch 97L very closely over the next several days! I know I will...