Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Quick 97L Post...

97L is getting sheared apart (30-40 knots) by a strong upper level low... This was expected, as I thought 97L would pulse up and down for two to three days... The problem is I thought this upper level low would start to move out, allowing an outflow jet to develop... I really thought this outflow jet would allow for 97L to develop into a tropical storm before landfall in extreme Southern Florida... Worst case scenario, which I thought was very possible, was for 97L to more through the Florida Straits and explode in the Central Gulf of Mexico... This is now a very unlikely scenario, because the upper low is going to back west with 97L, shearing it apart as it continues its track WNW into the Gulf of Mexico... Unless this upper level low can get far enough away for the shear to relax some, I think 97L is going to have a hard time even getting named Bonnie! Even if it does get named Bonnie, this shear associated with the upper low won't allow for much development at all! Of course I'll keep watching it, but this is great news for the Gulf of Mexico!

There is a couple more tropical waves to watch across the Atlantic Basin, but I don't see anything else developing in the near future... I'm sure everyone notices the other medium chance for development in the Bay of Campeche... This is something I've been watching since last Thursday, but it's going to run out of water before it can develop into anything! I know a lot of people are a little on edge with the hyped up 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, but this is typical for July! 2004 is a great example on how things can explode quickly in the tropics! I personally believe how the 2004 season evolved, will be similar to how the 2010 season evolves! Time will tell, but I expect August to be a HUGE month in the tropics!

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