Thursday, July 22, 2010

Tropical Storm Bonnie!

Tropical Storm Bonnie is taking a path towards SE Florida... Winds are currently only 40 mph, and I honestly don't see it increasing too much at all... Maybe up to 50 mph tops! The same upper level low is shearing Bonnie, even though it is starting to back away slowly to the west... The more north Bonnie moves, the more the shear should slowly decrease... Why? Because it will gain more distance away from the upper level low that way... This upper level low has been "pulling" Bonnie more NW today (Creating a weakness in the ridge)... As the upper level low continues to slowly back west, Bonnie should take more of a WNW track as the ridge builds in over the top... I will say my track is more north than the NHC's track... I feel the upper level low will "pull" Bonnie north enough that I'm liking a landfall between Homestead and Miami Beach tomorrow early afternoon... I think it will be a weak tropical storm, and I don't think this is a big deal in the Gulf of Mexico! That same upper level low will continue to shear Bonnie, plus with Bonnie striking the mainland of Florida, it will continually be torn apart... I honestly don't see Bonnie ever getting stronger than 50 mph! I talked about this a couple days ago in my blog, but with Bonnie making landfall in Southern Florida, I feel its track through the Gulf of Mexico will be towards Eastern Louisiana, even with a strong ridge in place across the SE US...

Image courtesy of Michael Laca ( An AWESOME tropical website everyone should check out!

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